BOS
DEN
Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Nuggets -3.2.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 5,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Celtics 6th (29.0%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Nuggets win 4,670 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Nuggets 4th (0.24), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 15 or more.
- Body clock: the Celtics cross 2 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.5 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · DEN n/a | BOS 53% · DEN 47% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS -114 · DEN +114 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nuggets 113, Celtics 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 18 and Nuggets by 15.
Side by side
| BOS | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | +4.1 7 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 118.2 1 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 114.1 21 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 56.9% 2 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 13 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 3 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 23.3% 28 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 38.8% 1 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 102.1 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | 2025-26 | BOS 84 @ DEN 103 | DEN |
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | DEN 114 @ BOS 110 | DEN |
| 2025-03-02 | 2024-25 | DEN 103 @ BOS 110 | BOS |
| 2025-01-07 | 2024-25 | BOS 118 @ DEN 106 | BOS |
| 2024-03-07 | 2023-24 | BOS 109 @ DEN 115 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works