BOS
DET
Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Simulation: the Pistons win 5,910 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pistons 2nd (16.3), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pistons 6th (0.22), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- History: the Pistons won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Celtics win 4,090 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Celtics 2nd (12.7), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 14 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Celtics 4th (75.9%), Pistons 15th (74.0%).
- Three-point shooting: Celtics 8th (36.5%), Pistons 15th (35.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 220.9 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · DET n/a | BOS 41% · DET 59% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS +145 · DET -145 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 112, Celtics 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 14 and Pistons by 20.
Side by side
| BOS | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | 2026-27 | BOS 113 @ DET 121 | DET |
| 2026-01-19 | 2025-26 | BOS 103 @ DET 104 | DET |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-26 | DET 112 @ BOS 105 | DET |
| 2025-11-26 | 2025-26 | DET 114 @ BOS 117 | BOS |
| 2025-10-26 | 2025-26 | BOS 113 @ DET 119 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works