BOS

Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Lakers

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

LAL

Our pick

LALLos Angeles Lakers

55% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

BOS 45%LAL 55%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Lakers can win

Home court: the Lakers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Simulation: the Lakers win 5,500 of 10,000 simulated games.
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Lakers 2nd (0.25), Celtics 29th (0.17).
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Lakers 11th (14.7), Celtics 27th (12.8).
Body clock: the Celtics cross 3 time zones.

Disadvantages Why Lakers may not

The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
Upset odds: the Celtics win 4,500 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
The Celtics' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 10th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Lakers 13th (+1.5).
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Celtics 2nd (12.7), Lakers 22nd (14.9).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	LAL -2
Total points	n/a	226.9
Win chance	BOS n/a · LAL n/a	BOS 45% · LAL 55%
Fair moneyline		BOS +122 · LAL -122

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Lakers 115, Celtics 113.
80% of simulations land between Celtics by 15 and Lakers by 18.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

BOS		LAL
3-1	Record	4-1
+7.5 4	Net rating	+1.5 13
116.6 2	Offensive rating	114.7 6
109.1 5	Defensive rating	113.2 19
55.1% 10	Effective FG%	57.2% 1
52.2% 4	Opponent eFG%	55.2% 20
12.7 2	Turnovers per 100	14.9 22
29.0% 6	Offensive rebound %	24.2% 21
36.5% 8	3-point %	36.3% 9
98.1 30	Pace	100.5 23

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-02-22	2025-26	BOS 111 @ LAL 89	BOS
2025-12-05	2025-26	LAL 105 @ BOS 126	BOS
2025-03-08	2024-25	LAL 101 @ BOS 111	BOS
2025-01-23	2024-25	BOS 96 @ LAL 117	LAL
2024-02-01	2023-24	LAL 114 @ BOS 105	LAL

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

BOS

Jayson Tatum F

23.1 pts, 9.6 reb, 6.1 ast in 34 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 19 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.2%)

BOS

Paul George F

22.2 pts, 6 reb, 3.5 ast in 31.5 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 19 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.2%)

BOS

Payton Pritchard G

16.7 pts, 3.8 reb, 5.1 ast in 32.2 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 19 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.2%)

LAL

Luka Doncic G

33.6 pts, 7.7 reb, 8.3 ast in 35.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 5 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.2%)

LAL

Austin Reaves G

23 pts, 4.5 reb, 5.5 ast in 34.8 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 5 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.2%)

LAL

Walker Kessler C

14.8 pts, 8.2 reb, 1 ast in 30.4 min, 75% FG

vs a defense ranked 5 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Celtics beat the Lakers 111-89 on the road (2026-02-22). The difference: they shot 57% effective field goal percentage to 44% and they won the boards 50 to 39. Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 32 points.