BOS
MEM
Boston Celtics @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- The Celtics' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 10th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Point differential per game: Celtics 4th (+7.3), Grizzlies 22nd (-5.0).
- Simulation: the Celtics win 5,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 4,720 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Grizzlies 8th (14.9), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.1 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · MEM n/a | BOS 53% · MEM 47% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS -112 · MEM +112 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 113, Celtics 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 18 and Grizzlies by 16.
Side by side
| BOS | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | 2025-26 | BOS 117 @ MEM 112 | BOS |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-26 | MEM 95 @ BOS 131 | BOS |
| 2025-03-31 | 2024-25 | BOS 117 @ MEM 103 | BOS |
| 2024-12-07 | 2024-25 | MEM 127 @ BOS 121 | MEM |
| 2024-02-04 | 2023-24 | MEM 91 @ BOS 131 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works