BOS
MIA
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Heat -7.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.7 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 6,090 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 14th.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.9 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 3,910 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Heat 17th (14.2), Celtics 27th (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.6 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · MIA n/a | BOS 61% · MIA 39% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS -156 · MIA +156 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 115, Celtics 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 20 and Heat by 13.
Side by side
| BOS | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | 2025-26 | BOS 147 @ MIA 129 | BOS |
| 2026-02-06 | 2025-26 | MIA 96 @ BOS 98 | BOS |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | BOS 119 @ MIA 114 | BOS |
| 2025-12-19 | 2025-26 | MIA 116 @ BOS 129 | BOS |
| 2025-04-02 | 2024-25 | MIA 124 @ BOS 103 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works