BOS
MIN
Boston Celtics @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 5,660 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Timberwolves 16th (14.3), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Timberwolves 15th (0.21), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Celtics win 4,340 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Timberwolves 11th (+2.6).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Celtics 2nd (12.7), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Timberwolves defense that ranks 8th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.6 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · MIN n/a | BOS 43% · MIN 57% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS +131 · MIN -131 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 115, Celtics 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 15 and Timberwolves by 19.
Side by side
| BOS | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | 2025-26 | MIN 102 @ BOS 92 | MIN |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-26 | BOS 115 @ MIN 119 | MIN |
| 2025-01-02 | 2024-25 | BOS 118 @ MIN 115 | BOS |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024-25 | MIN 105 @ BOS 107 | BOS |
| 2024-01-10 | 2023-24 | MIN 120 @ BOS 127 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works