BOS
NOP
Boston Celtics @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.1 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Pelicans -2.2.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 6,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,590 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.1 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · NOP n/a | BOS 64% · NOP 36% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS -179 · NOP +179 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 114, Celtics 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 21 and Pelicans by 12.
Side by side
| BOS | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | NOP 118 @ BOS 144 | BOS |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-26 | BOS 122 @ NOP 90 | BOS |
| 2025-01-31 | 2024-25 | BOS 118 @ NOP 116 | BOS |
| 2025-01-12 | 2024-25 | NOP 119 @ BOS 120 | BOS |
| 2024-03-30 | 2023-24 | BOS 104 @ NOP 92 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works