BOS
NYK
Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Home court: the Knicks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Knicks win 5,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Knicks 15th (14.3), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Strength: the Knicks rank 1st of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (76.9%).
- Strength: the Knicks rank 3rd of 30 in net rating (points per 100 possessions) (+7.6).
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the Celtics win 4,480 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Knicks +0.2.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 15 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Celtics 2nd (12.7), Knicks 9th (13.7).
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 221.4 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · NYK n/a | BOS 45% · NYK 55% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS +123 · NYK -123 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 112, Celtics 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 15 and Knicks by 19.
Side by side
| BOS | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 2026-27 | NYK 103 @ BOS 107 | BOS |
| 2026-04-09 | 2025-26 | BOS 106 @ NYK 112 | NYK |
| 2026-02-08 | 2025-26 | NYK 111 @ BOS 89 | NYK |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-26 | NYK 117 @ BOS 123 | BOS |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | BOS 95 @ NYK 105 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works