BOS
OKC
Boston Celtics @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Simulation: the Thunder win 5,840 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Thunder play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Thunder 1st (16.4), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Thunder 14th (0.21), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.7 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Celtics win 4,160 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Celtics 6th (29.0%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 14 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Celtics 4th (75.9%), Thunder 17th (73.8%).
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -2.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.5 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · OKC n/a | BOS 42% · OKC 58% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS +140 · OKC -140 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 113, Celtics 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 14 and Thunder by 19.
Side by side
| BOS | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | OKC 109 @ BOS 119 | BOS |
| 2026-03-12 | 2025-26 | BOS 102 @ OKC 104 | OKC |
| 2025-03-12 | 2024-25 | OKC 118 @ BOS 112 | OKC |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024-25 | BOS 92 @ OKC 105 | OKC |
| 2024-04-03 | 2023-24 | OKC 100 @ BOS 135 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works