BOS
ORL
Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Magic -12.5.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Magic 17th (-0.2).
- Simulation: the Celtics win 6,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Magic win 3,730 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Magic 13th (14.5), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 12 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -4.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.6 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · ORL n/a | BOS 63% · ORL 37% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS -168 · ORL +168 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 111, Celtics 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 21 and Magic by 12.
Side by side
| BOS | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | ORL 108 @ BOS 113 | BOS |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-26 | ORL 129 @ BOS 138 | BOS |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025-26 | BOS 111 @ ORL 107 | BOS |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-26 | BOS 110 @ ORL 123 | ORL |
| 2025-04-29 | Playoffs | ORL 89 @ BOS 120 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works