BOS
PHX
Boston Celtics @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Suns -14.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Suns 16th (+0.2).
- Simulation: the Celtics win 6,200 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 3,800 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 13 or more.
- Body clock: the Celtics cross 2 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.2 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · PHX n/a | BOS 62% · PHX 38% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS -163 · PHX +163 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 111, Celtics 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 21 and Suns by 13.
Side by side
| BOS | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-2 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | 2025-26 | PHX 112 @ BOS 120 | BOS |
| 2026-02-24 | 2025-26 | BOS 97 @ PHX 81 | BOS |
| 2025-04-04 | 2024-25 | PHX 103 @ BOS 123 | BOS |
| 2025-03-26 | 2024-25 | BOS 132 @ PHX 102 | BOS |
| 2024-03-14 | 2023-24 | PHX 112 @ BOS 127 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works