BOS
SAC
Boston Celtics @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
79% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.7 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Kings -16.6.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 28th.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 7,860 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,140 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 7 or more.
- Body clock: the Celtics cross 3 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -10 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.8 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · SAC n/a | BOS 79% · SAC 21% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS -368 · SAC +368 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 110, Celtics 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 26 and Kings by 7.
Side by side
| BOS | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 0-5 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 2025-26 | SAC 93 @ BOS 112 | BOS |
| 2026-01-01 | 2025-26 | BOS 120 @ SAC 106 | BOS |
| 2025-03-24 | 2024-25 | BOS 113 @ SAC 95 | BOS |
| 2025-01-10 | 2024-25 | SAC 114 @ BOS 97 | SAC |
| 2024-04-05 | 2023-24 | SAC 100 @ BOS 101 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works