BOS
SAS
Boston Celtics @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Spurs play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Spurs 9th (0.22), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.7 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Celtics win 3,840 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Three-point shooting: Celtics 8th (36.5%), Spurs 14th (35.8%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -3.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.6 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · SAS n/a | BOS 38% · SAS 62% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS +160 · SAS -160 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 115, Celtics 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 13 and Spurs by 21.
Side by side
| BOS | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 2025-26 | BOS 116 @ SAS 125 | SAS |
| 2026-01-10 | 2025-26 | SAS 100 @ BOS 95 | SAS |
| 2025-03-29 | 2024-25 | BOS 121 @ SAS 111 | BOS |
| 2025-02-12 | 2024-25 | SAS 103 @ BOS 116 | BOS |
| 2024-01-17 | 2023-24 | SAS 98 @ BOS 117 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works