BOS
TOR
Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Celtics +8.0.
- Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 5,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Raptors 3rd (16.2), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Raptors 17th (0.21), Celtics 29th (0.17).
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Celtics win 4,590 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Celtics 8th (36.5%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Celtics 4th (75.9%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 16 or more.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Raptors defense that ranks 7th.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -1.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.3 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · TOR n/a | BOS 46% · TOR 54% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS +118 · TOR -118 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 113, Celtics 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 16 and Raptors by 18.
Side by side
| BOS | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | TOR 101 @ BOS 115 | BOS |
| 2026-01-09 | 2025-26 | TOR 117 @ BOS 125 | BOS |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-26 | BOS 112 @ TOR 96 | BOS |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-26 | BOS 121 @ TOR 113 | BOS |
| 2025-02-25 | 2024-25 | BOS 111 @ TOR 101 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works