BOS
WAS
Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.5 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- The Celtics' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 10th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 7,000 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 3,000 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -6.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.3 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · WAS n/a | BOS 70% · WAS 30% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS -233 · WAS +233 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 111, Celtics 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 24 and Wizards by 10.
Side by side
| BOS | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | 2025-26 | WAS 100 @ BOS 111 | BOS |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-26 | BOS 146 @ WAS 101 | BOS |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-26 | WAS 107 @ BOS 136 | BOS |
| 2025-04-06 | 2024-25 | WAS 90 @ BOS 124 | BOS |
| 2024-12-15 | 2024-25 | BOS 112 @ WAS 98 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works