CHA

Charlotte Hornets @ Atlanta Hawks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

ATL

Our pick

ATLAtlanta Hawks

62% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

CHA 38%ATL 62%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Hawks can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Hornets -7.2.
Simulation: the Hawks win 6,200 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Hawks 7th (13.6), Hornets 28th (15.6).
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Hawks 6th (15.4), Hornets 28th (12.7).

Disadvantages Why Hawks may not

Upset odds: the Hornets win 3,800 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Hawks 14th (+1.2).
The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 4th (30.5%), Hawks 20th (24.3%).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 13 or more.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	ATL -4
Total points	n/a	225.8
Win chance	CHA n/a · ATL n/a	CHA 38% · ATL 62%
Fair moneyline		CHA +163 · ATL -163

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Hawks 115, Hornets 111.
80% of simulations land between Hornets by 13 and Hawks by 21.

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Side by side

CHA		ATL
3-2	Record	3-3
+3.7 8	Net rating	+1.2 14
114.6 7	Offensive rating	112.5 14
110.9 10	Defensive rating	111.3 11
54.7% 13	Effective FG%	55.0% 11
54.0% 10	Opponent eFG%	54.6% 19
15.6 28	Turnovers per 100	13.6 7
30.5% 4	Offensive rebound %	24.3% 20
37.2% 4	3-point %	36.7% 7
100.3 25	Pace	104.3 6

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-23	2026-27	ATL 128 @ CHA 81	ATL
2026-02-11	2025-26	ATL 107 @ CHA 110	CHA
2026-02-07	2025-26	CHA 126 @ ATL 119	CHA
2025-12-18	2025-26	ATL 126 @ CHA 133	CHA
2025-11-23	2025-26	CHA 110 @ ATL 113	ATL

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

CHA

Kon Knueppel G

18.3 pts, 5.3 reb, 3.3 ast in 31.5 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

CHA

Brandon Miller F

20.5 pts, 5 reb, 3.2 ast in 30.6 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

CHA

Grayson Allen G

15.2 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast in 28.2 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

ATL

Jalen Johnson F

22.1 pts, 10 reb, 7.7 ast in 35.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

ATL

Nickeil Alexander-Walker G

20.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.5 ast in 33.3 min, 45% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

ATL

Dyson Daniels G

11.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.8 ast in 32.5 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Hawks beat the Hornets 128-81 on the road (2026-10-23). The difference: they shot 60% effective field goal percentage to 41% and they committed 14 fewer turnovers (13 to 27).