CHA
BOS
Charlotte Hornets @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
68% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Hornets -7.2.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 6,790 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Celtics 2nd (12.7), Hornets 28th (15.6).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 3,210 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Hornets 20th (0.20), Celtics 29th (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -6.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 220 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · BOS n/a | CHA 32% · BOS 68% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA +212 · BOS -212 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 113, Hornets 107.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 11 and Celtics by 23.
Side by side
| CHA | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | CHA 102 @ BOS 113 | BOS |
| 2026-03-29 | 2025-26 | BOS 114 @ CHA 99 | BOS |
| 2026-03-04 | 2025-26 | CHA 118 @ BOS 89 | CHA |
| 2025-04-13 | 2024-25 | CHA 86 @ BOS 93 | BOS |
| 2025-04-11 | 2024-25 | CHA 94 @ BOS 130 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works