CHA
CHI
Charlotte Hornets @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.7 points to the Hornets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 25th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hornets -7.2, Bulls -16.2.
- Simulation: the Hornets win 6,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 3,990 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Bulls 17th (14.5), Hornets 28th (15.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.4 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · CHI n/a | CHA 60% · CHI 40% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA -151 · CHI +151 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 114, Hornets 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 20 and Bulls by 13.
Side by side
| CHA | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | 2025-26 | CHA 131 @ CHI 99 | CHA |
| 2026-01-03 | 2025-26 | CHA 112 @ CHI 99 | CHA |
| 2025-12-12 | 2025-26 | CHI 129 @ CHA 126 | CHI |
| 2025-11-28 | 2025-26 | CHI 116 @ CHA 123 | CHA |
| 2025-04-06 | 2024-25 | CHI 131 @ CHA 117 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works