CHA
CLE
Charlotte Hornets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Cavaliers +1.0, Hornets -7.2.
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 5,970 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Cavaliers 10th (14.7), Hornets 28th (12.7).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 15th (14.2), Hornets 28th (15.6).
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 4,030 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
- Three-point shooting: Hornets 4th (37.2%), Cavaliers 19th (35.4%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 3rd (76.6%), Cavaliers 18th (73.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.2 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · CLE n/a | CHA 40% · CLE 60% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA +148 · CLE -148 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 114, Hornets 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 14 and Cavaliers by 20.
Side by side
| CHA | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | 2025-26 | CLE 118 @ CHA 113 | CLE |
| 2026-01-21 | 2025-26 | CLE 94 @ CHA 87 | CLE |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-26 | CHA 132 @ CLE 139 | CLE |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025-26 | CHA 119 @ CLE 111 | CHA |
| 2025-03-07 | 2024-25 | CLE 118 @ CHA 117 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works