CHA
DAL
Charlotte Hornets @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Mavericks +2.0, Hornets -7.2.
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 5,720 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mavericks 13th (14.0), Hornets 28th (15.6).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.8 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 4,280 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th.
- Point differential per game: Hornets 8th (+3.7), Mavericks 23rd (-5.1).
- Three-point shooting: Hornets 4th (37.2%), Mavericks 26th (34.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.2 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · DAL n/a | CHA 43% · DAL 57% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA +134 · DAL -134 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 113, Hornets 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 14 and Mavericks by 19.
Side by side
| CHA | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | 2025-26 | DAL 90 @ CHA 117 | CHA |
| 2026-01-29 | 2025-26 | CHA 123 @ DAL 121 | CHA |
| 2025-02-27 | 2024-25 | CHA 96 @ DAL 103 | DAL |
| 2025-01-20 | 2024-25 | DAL 105 @ CHA 110 | CHA |
| 2024-04-09 | 2023-24 | DAL 130 @ CHA 104 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works