CHA

Charlotte Hornets @ Denver Nuggets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DEN

Our pick

DENDenver Nuggets

60% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

CHA 40%DEN 60%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Nuggets can win

Simulation: the Nuggets win 5,950 of 10,000 simulated games.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nuggets 3rd (12.7), Hornets 28th (15.6).
Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Hornets defense that ranks 10th.
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Hornets defense that ranks 10th.

Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not

The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
Upset odds: the Hornets win 4,050 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 4th (30.5%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 14 or more.
Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DEN -3
Total points	n/a	223.4
Win chance	CHA n/a · DEN n/a	CHA 40% · DEN 60%
Fair moneyline		CHA +147 · DEN -147

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nuggets 114, Hornets 110.
80% of simulations land between Hornets by 14 and Nuggets by 20.

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Side by side

CHA		DEN
3-2	Record	2-2
+3.7 8	Net rating	+4.1 7
114.6 7	Offensive rating	118.2 1
110.9 10	Defensive rating	114.1 21
54.7% 13	Effective FG%	56.9% 2
54.0% 10	Opponent eFG%	54.1% 13
15.6 28	Turnovers per 100	12.7 3
30.5% 4	Offensive rebound %	23.3% 28
37.2% 4	3-point %	38.8% 1
100.3 25	Pace	102.1 20

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-01-18	2025-26	CHA 110 @ DEN 87	CHA
2025-12-07	2025-26	DEN 115 @ CHA 106	DEN
2025-02-20	2024-25	CHA 115 @ DEN 129	DEN
2025-02-01	2024-25	DEN 107 @ CHA 104	DEN
2024-01-01	2023-24	CHA 93 @ DEN 111	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

CHA

Kon Knueppel G

18.3 pts, 5.3 reb, 3.3 ast in 31.5 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

CHA

Brandon Miller F

20.5 pts, 5 reb, 3.2 ast in 30.6 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

CHA

Grayson Allen G

15.2 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast in 28.2 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Hornets beat the Nuggets 110-87 on the road (2026-01-18). The difference: they won the boards 52 to 29 and they shot 56% effective field goal percentage to 46%.