CHA
DET
Charlotte Hornets @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
72% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Hornets -7.2.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 7,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.4 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 2,840 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Hornets 4th (37.2%), Pistons 15th (35.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 10 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 3rd (76.6%), Pistons 15th (74.0%).
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -7.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 216.8 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · DET n/a | CHA 28% · DET 72% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA +252 · DET -252 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 112, Hornets 105.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 10 and Pistons by 25.
Side by side
| CHA | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | CHA 89 @ DET 97 | DET |
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | DET 118 @ CHA 100 | DET |
| 2026-02-09 | 2025-26 | DET 110 @ CHA 104 | DET |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-26 | CHA 86 @ DET 112 | DET |
| 2025-02-09 | 2024-25 | CHA 102 @ DET 112 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works