CHA
GSW
Charlotte Hornets @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 5,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Hornets 28th (12.7).
- Body clock: the Hornets cross 3 time zones.
- History: the Warriors won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 4,480 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 17th.
- Point differential per game: Hornets 8th (+3.7), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -1.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.5 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · GSW n/a | CHA 45% · GSW 55% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA +123 · GSW -123 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 114, Hornets 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 15 and Warriors by 19.
Side by side
| CHA | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | 2025-26 | CHA 116 @ GSW 136 | GSW |
| 2025-12-31 | 2025-26 | GSW 132 @ CHA 125 | GSW |
| 2025-03-03 | 2024-25 | GSW 119 @ CHA 101 | GSW |
| 2025-02-25 | 2024-25 | CHA 92 @ GSW 128 | GSW |
| 2024-03-29 | 2023-24 | GSW 115 @ CHA 97 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works