CHA
HOU
Charlotte Hornets @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
75% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Hornets -7.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 7,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.2 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Home court: the Rockets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 2,460 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
- Three-point shooting: Hornets 4th (37.2%), Rockets 11th (36.2%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 3rd (76.6%), Rockets 10th (74.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -8.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 220.2 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · HOU n/a | CHA 25% · HOU 75% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA +306 · HOU -306 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 115, Hornets 106.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 8 and Rockets by 26.
Side by side
| CHA | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | 2025-26 | HOU 105 @ CHA 101 | HOU |
| 2026-02-05 | 2025-26 | CHA 109 @ HOU 99 | CHA |
| 2024-12-23 | 2024-25 | HOU 114 @ CHA 101 | HOU |
| 2024-10-23 | 2024-25 | CHA 110 @ HOU 105 | CHA |
| 2024-01-26 | 2023-24 | HOU 138 @ CHA 104 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works