CHA
LAL
Charlotte Hornets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Hornets -7.2.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 6,860 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.2 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- Home court: the Lakers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 3,140 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 4th (30.5%), Lakers 21st (24.2%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 3rd (76.6%), Lakers 19th (73.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -6.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.8 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · LAL n/a | CHA 31% · LAL 69% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA +219 · LAL -219 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 115, Hornets 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 10 and Lakers by 23.
Side by side
| CHA | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | CHA 135 @ LAL 117 | CHA |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-26 | LAL 121 @ CHA 111 | LAL |
| 2025-02-19 | 2024-25 | CHA 100 @ LAL 97 | CHA |
| 2025-01-27 | 2024-25 | LAL 112 @ CHA 107 | LAL |
| 2024-02-05 | 2023-24 | LAL 124 @ CHA 118 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works