CHA
MEM
Charlotte Hornets @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Hornets -7.2.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 6,000 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Grizzlies 8th (14.9), Hornets 28th (12.7).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Grizzlies 18th (14.5), Hornets 28th (15.6).
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 4,000 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Hornets 8th (+3.7), Grizzlies 22nd (-5.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 223 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · MEM n/a | CHA 40% · MEM 60% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA +150 · MEM -150 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 113, Hornets 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 13 and Grizzlies by 21.
Side by side
| CHA | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | 2025-26 | MEM 101 @ CHA 124 | CHA |
| 2026-01-28 | 2025-26 | CHA 112 @ MEM 97 | CHA |
| 2025-04-08 | 2024-25 | MEM 124 @ CHA 100 | MEM |
| 2025-01-22 | 2024-25 | CHA 120 @ MEM 132 | MEM |
| 2024-03-13 | 2023-24 | CHA 110 @ MEM 98 | CHA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works