CHA
MIL
Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to the Hornets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 27th.
- The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
- Simulation: the Hornets win 6,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 3,940 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Hornets defense that ranks 10th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 13 or more.
- History: the Bucks won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.9 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · MIL n/a | CHA 61% · MIL 39% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA -154 · MIL +154 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 110, Hornets 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 20 and Bucks by 13.
Side by side
| CHA | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | 2025-26 | CHA 121 @ MIL 122 | MIL |
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | MIL 123 @ CHA 113 | MIL |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-26 | CHA 134 @ MIL 147 | MIL |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-26 | MIL 100 @ CHA 111 | CHA |
| 2025-02-05 | 2024-25 | MIL 112 @ CHA 102 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works