CHA
MIN
Charlotte Hornets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Hornets -7.2.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 6,980 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 3,020 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 10 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 4th (30.5%), Timberwolves 13th (26.0%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 3rd (76.6%), Timberwolves 9th (74.5%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -6.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.5 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · MIN n/a | CHA 30% · MIN 70% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA +231 · MIN -231 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 115, Hornets 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 10 and Timberwolves by 24.
Side by side
| CHA | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | CHA 122 @ MIN 108 | CHA |
| 2025-11-01 | 2025-26 | MIN 122 @ CHA 105 | MIN |
| 2025-03-05 | 2024-25 | MIN 125 @ CHA 110 | MIN |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | CHA 93 @ MIN 114 | MIN |
| 2024-01-22 | 2023-24 | CHA 128 @ MIN 125 | CHA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works