CHA
NOP
Charlotte Hornets @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
50% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Three-point shooting: Hornets 4th (37.2%), Pelicans 25th (34.4%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to the Hornets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 4,990 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Hornets 28th (15.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 17 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Hornets 20th (0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -0.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 228 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · NOP n/a | CHA 50% · NOP 50% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA -100 · NOP +100 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 114, Hornets 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 17 and Pelicans by 17.
Side by side
| CHA | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | 2025-26 | NOP 95 @ CHA 102 | CHA |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-26 | CHA 112 @ NOP 116 | NOP |
| 2025-03-30 | 2024-25 | CHA 94 @ NOP 98 | NOP |
| 2025-01-25 | 2024-25 | NOP 92 @ CHA 123 | CHA |
| 2024-01-17 | 2023-24 | CHA 112 @ NOP 132 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works