CHA
NYK
Charlotte Hornets @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Simulation: the Knicks win 6,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Knicks +0.2, Hornets -7.2.
- Home court: the Knicks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 3,110 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -6.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 217.4 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · NYK n/a | CHA 31% · NYK 69% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA +221 · NYK -221 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 112, Hornets 106.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 11 and Knicks by 23.
Side by side
| CHA | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | CHA 110 @ NYK 96 | CHA |
| 2026-03-26 | 2025-26 | NYK 103 @ CHA 114 | CHA |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-26 | CHA 104 @ NYK 119 | NYK |
| 2025-11-26 | 2025-26 | NYK 129 @ CHA 101 | NYK |
| 2025-03-20 | 2024-25 | NYK 98 @ CHA 115 | CHA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works