CHA
OKC
Charlotte Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Simulation: the Thunder win 7,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Thunder +3.6, Hornets -7.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (12.5), Hornets 28th (15.6).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.3 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 4th (30.5%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 2,900 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 9 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 3rd (76.6%), Thunder 17th (73.8%).
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -7.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 218.4 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · OKC n/a | CHA 29% · OKC 71% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA +245 · OKC -245 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 113, Hornets 106.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 9 and Thunder by 24.
Side by side
| CHA | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 | 2025-26 | CHA 124 @ OKC 97 | CHA |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-26 | OKC 109 @ CHA 96 | OKC |
| 2025-03-21 | 2024-25 | CHA 106 @ OKC 141 | OKC |
| 2024-12-28 | 2024-25 | OKC 106 @ CHA 94 | OKC |
| 2024-04-07 | 2023-24 | OKC 121 @ CHA 118 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works