CHA
ORL
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Magic 11th (13.9), Hornets 28th (15.6).
- Simulation: the Magic win 5,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Magic 13th (14.5), Hornets 28th (12.7).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Hornets 20th (0.20).
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 4,940 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Hornets 4th (37.2%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Magic 17th (-0.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to the Hornets in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Hornets 8th (+3.7), Magic 17th (-0.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ORL -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.5 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · ORL n/a | CHA 49% · ORL 51% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA +102 · ORL -102 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 112, Hornets 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 17 and Magic by 17.
Side by side
| CHA | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | 2025-26 | CHA 90 @ ORL 121 | ORL |
| 2026-03-19 | 2025-26 | ORL 111 @ CHA 130 | CHA |
| 2026-01-22 | 2025-26 | CHA 124 @ ORL 97 | CHA |
| 2025-12-26 | 2025-26 | CHA 120 @ ORL 105 | CHA |
| 2025-10-30 | 2025-26 | ORL 123 @ CHA 107 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works