CHA
PHX
Charlotte Hornets @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHXPhoenix Suns
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Suns can win
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Hornets 28th (12.7).
- Simulation: the Suns win 5,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Body clock: the Hornets cross 2 time zones.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Suns 19th (14.5), Hornets 28th (15.6).
Disadvantages Why Suns may not
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 4,860 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hornets -7.2, Suns -14.3.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Suns 16th (+0.2).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 3rd (76.6%), Suns 28th (71.4%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to the Hornets in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHX -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 221.1 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · PHX n/a | CHA 49% · PHX 51% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA +106 · PHX -106 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 111, Hornets 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 16 and Suns by 18.
Side by side
| CHA | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-2 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | 2025-26 | PHX 107 @ CHA 127 | CHA |
| 2026-03-08 | 2025-26 | CHA 99 @ PHX 111 | PHX |
| 2025-01-12 | 2024-25 | CHA 113 @ PHX 120 | PHX |
| 2025-01-07 | 2024-25 | PHX 104 @ CHA 115 | CHA |
| 2024-03-15 | 2023-24 | PHX 107 @ CHA 96 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works