CHA
SAC
Charlotte Hornets @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.3 points to the Hornets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 28th.
- The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
- Simulation: the Hornets win 6,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 3,290 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Hornets 28th (15.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 11 or more.
- Body clock: the Hornets cross 3 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -5.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.7 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · SAC n/a | CHA 67% · SAC 33% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA -204 · SAC +204 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 110, Hornets 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 23 and Kings by 11.
Side by side
| CHA | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 0-5 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | 2025-26 | SAC 90 @ CHA 134 | CHA |
| 2026-03-11 | 2025-26 | CHA 117 @ SAC 109 | CHA |
| 2025-04-04 | 2024-25 | SAC 125 @ CHA 102 | SAC |
| 2025-02-24 | 2024-25 | CHA 88 @ SAC 130 | SAC |
| 2024-01-10 | 2023-24 | SAC 123 @ CHA 98 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works