CHA
SAS
Charlotte Hornets @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
74% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Hornets -7.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 7,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.7 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Home court: the Spurs play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 2,640 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 8 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Hornets 4th (37.2%), Spurs 14th (35.8%).
- History: the Hornets won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -8.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 221.6 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · SAS n/a | CHA 26% · SAS 74% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA +279 · SAS -279 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 115, Hornets 106.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 8 and Spurs by 25.
Side by side
| CHA | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | 2025-26 | CHA 102 @ SAS 115 | SAS |
| 2026-01-31 | 2025-26 | SAS 106 @ CHA 111 | CHA |
| 2025-03-14 | 2024-25 | CHA 145 @ SAS 134 | CHA |
| 2025-02-07 | 2024-25 | SAS 116 @ CHA 117 | CHA |
| 2024-01-19 | 2023-24 | SAS 120 @ CHA 124 | CHA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works