CHA
TOR
Charlotte Hornets @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Hornets -7.2.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 6,700 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 3,300 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Hornets 4th (37.2%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 3rd (76.6%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 11 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 4th (30.5%), Raptors 15th (25.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 220.2 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · TOR n/a | CHA 33% · TOR 67% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA +203 · TOR -203 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 113, Hornets 107.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 11 and Raptors by 23.
Side by side
| CHA | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | TOR 97 @ CHA 96 | TOR |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-26 | CHA 111 @ TOR 86 | CHA |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-26 | TOR 111 @ CHA 118 | CHA |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-26 | CHA 108 @ TOR 110 | TOR |
| 2025-04-09 | 2024-25 | CHA 96 @ TOR 126 | TOR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works