CHA
UTA
Charlotte Hornets @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
- The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to the Hornets in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Hornets 8th (+3.7), Jazz 27th (-8.4).
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 4,280 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 15 or more.
- Body clock: the Hornets cross 2 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.2 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · UTA n/a | CHA 57% · UTA 43% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA -134 · UTA +134 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 112, Hornets 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 19 and Jazz by 15.
Side by side
| CHA | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | 2025-26 | CHA 150 @ UTA 95 | CHA |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025-26 | UTA 103 @ CHA 126 | CHA |
| 2025-03-31 | 2024-25 | UTA 106 @ CHA 110 | CHA |
| 2025-01-15 | 2024-25 | CHA 117 @ UTA 112 | CHA |
| 2024-02-22 | 2023-24 | CHA 115 @ UTA 107 | CHA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works