CHI
ATL
Chicago Bulls @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
76% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Bulls -16.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.5 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Hawks win 7,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.9 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 2,380 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Hawks 12th (74.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -9.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 241.2 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · ATL n/a | CHI 24% · ATL 76% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +320 · ATL -320 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 125, Bulls 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 8 and Hawks by 25.
Side by side
| CHI | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-3 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | CHI 126 @ ATL 123 | CHI |
| 2025-12-21 | 2025-26 | CHI 152 @ ATL 150 | CHI |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-26 | ATL 123 @ CHI 128 | CHI |
| 2025-01-15 | 2024-25 | ATL 110 @ CHI 94 | ATL |
| 2024-12-26 | 2024-25 | CHI 133 @ ATL 141 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works