CHI
CHA
Chicago Bulls @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.7 points to the Hornets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- Simulation: the Hornets win 7,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 25th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hornets -7.2, Bulls -16.2.
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 2,950 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Bulls 17th (14.5), Hornets 28th (15.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.6).
- Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -6.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.4 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · CHA n/a | CHI 30% · CHA 70% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +239 · CHA -239 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 119, Bulls 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 10 and Hornets by 24.
Side by side
| CHI | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | 2025-26 | CHA 131 @ CHI 99 | CHA |
| 2026-01-03 | 2025-26 | CHA 112 @ CHI 99 | CHA |
| 2025-12-12 | 2025-26 | CHI 129 @ CHA 126 | CHI |
| 2025-11-28 | 2025-26 | CHI 116 @ CHA 123 | CHA |
| 2025-04-06 | 2024-25 | CHI 131 @ CHA 117 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works