CHI
CLE
Chicago Bulls @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
74% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Cavaliers +1.0, Bulls -16.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.3 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 7,370 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 21st.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 2,630 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 8 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Cavaliers 18th (73.8%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -8.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 239.6 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · CLE n/a | CHI 26% · CLE 74% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +280 · CLE -280 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 124, Bulls 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 8 and Cavaliers by 25.
Side by side
| CHI | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | 2025-26 | CLE 115 @ CHI 110 | CLE |
| 2025-12-19 | 2025-26 | CHI 136 @ CLE 125 | CHI |
| 2025-12-17 | 2025-26 | CLE 111 @ CHI 127 | CHI |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-26 | CHI 122 @ CLE 128 | CLE |
| 2025-04-08 | 2024-25 | CHI 113 @ CLE 135 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works