CHI
DAL
Chicago Bulls @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
72% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Mavericks +2.0, Bulls -16.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 7,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.1 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 2,830 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 9 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Mavericks 16th (73.9%).
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (108.7).
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -7.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 239.6 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · DAL n/a | CHI 28% · DAL 72% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +253 · DAL -253 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 124, Bulls 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 9 and Mavericks by 24.
Side by side
| CHI | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | CHI 128 @ DAL 149 | DAL |
| 2026-01-10 | 2025-26 | DAL 107 @ CHI 125 | CHI |
| 2025-03-29 | 2024-25 | DAL 120 @ CHI 119 | DAL |
| 2024-11-06 | 2024-25 | CHI 99 @ DAL 119 | DAL |
| 2024-03-11 | 2023-24 | DAL 127 @ CHI 92 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works