CHI
DET
Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
83% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.8 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Bulls -16.2.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 8,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.8 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 1,700 of 10,000 simulations (17%). A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 5 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Bulls 17th (14.5), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Pistons 15th (74.0%).
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -12.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.3 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · DET n/a | CHI 17% · DET 83% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +489 · DET -489 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 123, Bulls 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 5 and Pistons by 29.
Side by side
| CHI | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | 2025-26 | DET 126 @ CHI 110 | DET |
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | CHI 93 @ DET 108 | DET |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-26 | CHI 113 @ DET 124 | DET |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-26 | DET 111 @ CHI 115 | CHI |
| 2025-02-12 | 2024-25 | DET 128 @ CHI 110 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works