CHI
GSW
Chicago Bulls @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors -1.8, Bulls -16.2.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 7,090 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 2,910 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Warriors 23rd (72.9%).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Bulls 17th (14.5), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 9 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -6.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 240 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · GSW n/a | CHI 29% · GSW 71% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +244 · GSW -244 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 124, Bulls 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 9 and Warriors by 24.
Side by side
| CHI | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 2025-26 | CHI 130 @ GSW 124 | CHI |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-26 | GSW 123 @ CHI 91 | GSW |
| 2025-02-08 | 2024-25 | GSW 132 @ CHI 111 | GSW |
| 2025-01-23 | 2024-25 | CHI 106 @ GSW 131 | GSW |
| 2024-03-07 | 2023-24 | CHI 125 @ GSW 122 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works