CHI
HOU
Chicago Bulls @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
86% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.8 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 8,590 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.5 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Bulls -16.2.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 1,410 of 10,000 simulations (14%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 3 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Bulls 17th (14.5), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -14 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.6 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · HOU n/a | CHI 14% · HOU 86% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +607 · HOU -607 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 125, Bulls 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 3 and Rockets by 30.
Side by side
| CHI | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 5-0 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | 2025-26 | HOU 124 @ CHI 132 | CHI |
| 2026-01-13 | 2025-26 | CHI 113 @ HOU 119 | HOU |
| 2025-03-15 | 2024-25 | CHI 114 @ HOU 117 | HOU |
| 2024-11-17 | 2024-25 | HOU 143 @ CHI 107 | HOU |
| 2024-03-21 | 2023-24 | CHI 117 @ HOU 127 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works