CHI
IND
Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndiana Pacers
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pacers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers +0.2, Bulls -16.2.
- Simulation: the Pacers win 6,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to the Pacers in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.0 points to the Pacers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Pacers may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 3,530 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pacers lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pacers rank 29th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (21.8%).
- Weak spot: the Pacers rank 27th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (108.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 239.9 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · IND n/a | CHI 35% · IND 65% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +183 · IND -183 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 123, Bulls 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 12 and Pacers by 21.
Side by side
| CHI | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | 2025-26 | IND 145 @ CHI 126 | IND |
| 2026-01-28 | 2025-26 | CHI 110 @ IND 113 | IND |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-26 | IND 120 @ CHI 105 | IND |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-26 | CHI 101 @ IND 103 | IND |
| 2025-03-10 | 2024-25 | IND 103 @ CHI 121 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works