CHI
LAC
Chicago Bulls @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Clippers -1.5, Bulls -16.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to the Clippers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Clippers win 7,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 21st.
- The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 25th.
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 2,690 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Clippers 25th (72.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Clippers rank 25th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.8%).
- Weak spot: the Clippers rank 24th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -7.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.3 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · LAC n/a | CHI 27% · LAC 73% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +271 · LAC -271 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 121, Bulls 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 9 and Clippers by 24.
Side by side
| CHI | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-3 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | 2025-26 | CHI 108 @ LAC 119 | LAC |
| 2026-01-20 | 2025-26 | LAC 110 @ CHI 138 | CHI |
| 2025-02-26 | 2024-25 | LAC 122 @ CHI 117 | LAC |
| 2025-01-20 | 2024-25 | CHI 112 @ LAC 99 | CHI |
| 2024-03-14 | 2023-24 | LAC 126 @ CHI 111 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works