CHI
LAL
Chicago Bulls @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
82% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.2 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Bulls -16.2.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 8,150 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 21st.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.6 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 1,850 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 5 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Lakers 19th (73.8%).
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 22nd of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -11.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 238.3 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · LAL n/a | CHI 18% · LAL 82% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +439 · LAL -439 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 125, Bulls 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 5 and Lakers by 28.
Side by side
| CHI | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | 2025-26 | CHI 130 @ LAL 142 | LAL |
| 2026-01-26 | 2025-26 | LAL 129 @ CHI 118 | LAL |
| 2025-03-27 | 2024-25 | LAL 117 @ CHI 119 | CHI |
| 2025-03-22 | 2024-25 | CHI 146 @ LAL 115 | CHI |
| 2024-01-25 | 2023-24 | CHI 132 @ LAL 141 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works