CHI
MIA
Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Simulation: the Heat win 6,650 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Heat -7.8, Bulls -16.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to the Heat in our ratings.
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 25th.
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 3,350 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Heat rank 22nd of 30 in points allowed per game (118.8).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 243.9 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · MIA n/a | CHI 34% · MIA 66% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +199 · MIA -199 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 125, Bulls 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 11 and Heat by 22.
Side by side
| CHI | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | 2025-26 | CHI 91 @ MIA 134 | MIA |
| 2026-01-31 | 2025-26 | CHI 125 @ MIA 118 | CHI |
| 2026-01-29 | 2025-26 | MIA 116 @ CHI 113 | MIA |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-26 | MIA 143 @ CHI 107 | MIA |
| 2025-04-16 | 2024-25 | MIA 109 @ CHI 90 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works