CHI
MIL
Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MILMilwaukee Bucks
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Bucks can win
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 21st.
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Bucks win 5,530 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Bulls 22nd (35.0%).
- Strength: the Bucks rank 2nd of 30 in three-point shooting (38.4%).
Disadvantages Why Bucks may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 4,470 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Bucks lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Bucks rank 30th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (21.7%).
- Weak spot: the Bucks rank 30th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.16).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIL -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 239.3 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · MIL n/a | CHI 45% · MIL 55% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +124 · MIL -124 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 121, Bulls 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 15 and Bucks by 18.
Side by side
| CHI | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 2026-27 | CHI 132 @ MIL 125 | CHI |
| 2026-03-01 | 2025-26 | MIL 97 @ CHI 120 | CHI |
| 2026-02-03 | 2025-26 | CHI 115 @ MIL 131 | MIL |
| 2025-12-27 | 2025-26 | MIL 112 @ CHI 103 | MIL |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-26 | CHI 110 @ MIL 126 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works