CHI
MIN
Chicago Bulls @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
81% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.7 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Bulls -16.2.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 8,130 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.4 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 1,870 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 5 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
- Rest days: teams sometimes sit healthy players, which isn't always on the injury report early.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -11.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 238.9 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · MIN n/a | CHI 19% · MIN 81% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +434 · MIN -434 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 125, Bulls 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 5 and Timberwolves by 28.
Side by side
| CHI | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | 2025-26 | CHI 120 @ MIN 115 | CHI |
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | MIN 136 @ CHI 101 | MIN |
| 2025-02-05 | 2024-25 | CHI 108 @ MIN 127 | MIN |
| 2024-11-07 | 2024-25 | MIN 135 @ CHI 119 | MIN |
| 2024-03-31 | 2023-24 | CHI 109 @ MIN 101 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works